Abstract
Background
In China, health screening has become common, although colonoscopy is not always available
or acceptable. We sought to develop a prediction model of colorectal cancer (CRC)
for health screening population based on readily available clinical data to reduce
labor and economic costs.
Methods
We conducted a cross-sectional study based on a health screening population in Karamay
Central Hospital. By collecting clinical data and basic information from participants,
we identified independent risk factors and established a prediction model of CRC.
Internal and external validation, calibration plot, and decision curve analysis were
employed to test discriminating ability, calibration ability, and clinical practicability.
Results
Independent risk factors of CRC, which were readily available in primary public health
institutions, included high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, male sex, total cholesterol,
advanced age, and hemoglobin. These factors were successfully incorporated into the
prediction model (AUC 0.740, 95% CI 0.713-0.767). The model demonstrated a high degree
of discrimination and calibration, in addition to a high degree of clinical practicability
in high-risk people.
Conclusions
The prediction model exhibits good discrimination and calibration and is pragmatic
for CRC screening in rural areas and primary public health institutions.
Key Indexing Terms
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Article info
Publication history
Published online: February 01, 2022
Accepted:
January 25,
2022
Received:
June 20,
2020
Identification
Copyright
© 2022 Published by Elsevier Inc. on behalf of Southern Society for Clinical Investigation.
